Why the Carolina Panthers Will Shock the NFL and Upset the Jaguars in Week 1

Rookie RB Trevor Ettiene breaks away for a 28-yard pickup against the Steelers in the final preseason game of 2025 as part of a 39-yard performance on 3 carries.

The Carolina Panthers enter the 2025 NFL season with a chip on their shoulder, a revamped roster, and a head coach determined to rewrite the narrative. Las Vegas oddsmakers have pegged the Panthers as underdogs in their Week 1 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, favoring the home team by three points. But betting lines don’t account for grit, growth, or the quiet storm brewing in Charlotte. Here’s why the Panthers are poised to defy expectations and walk out of EverBank Stadium with a statement win.

Head coach Dave Canales enters his second season with the Panthers after a rocky 2024 campaign that ended with just five wins and a booming twelve losses. But the record doesn’t tell the full story. After a 1-7 start, Canales’s squad went 4-5 down the stretch, including narrow losses to playoff-bound teams like the Chiefs (30-27), Buccaneers (26-23 in OT), and Eagles (22-16). These weren’t flukes—they were signs of a team learning how to compete.

Canales, formerly the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay, has installed a run-heavy, play-action system that suits quarterback Bryce Young’s strengths. The Panthers now boast a more balanced attack, and Canales’s familiarity with Jaguars head coach Liam Coen—who followed the same path from Tampa OC to head coach—gives Carolina a strategic edge. Canales knows Coen’s tendencies, and that chess match could tilt the game.

Bryce Young’s rookie season was turbulent, but the final stretch showed promise. He led the Panthers to a 4-5 record over their last nine games, demonstrating poise, accuracy, and leadership. In Week 1, he’ll face a Jaguars defense that ranked 32nd in defensive DVOA last season. That’s not just bad—it’s historically bad.

Young now has a deeper receiving corps, including Xavier Legette and rookie Tetairoa McMillan, plus veteran targets like David Moore and Brycen Tremayne. That list will soon include Hunter Renfrow. With a full offseason in Canales’s system and improved protection up front, Young is primed to exploit Jacksonville’s defensive vulnerabilities. The only possible hitch is the recent Appendix surgery for left tackle Ikem “Ickey” Ekwonu who is listed as day-to-day.

While the Jaguars boast offensive firepower with Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and rookie phenom Travis Hunter, the Panthers defense is quietly formidable. Anchored by Derrick Brown and A’Shawn Robinson on the line, and flanked by linebackers like DJ Wonnum and Nic Scourton, Carolina has the personnel to pressure Lawrence and disrupt timing.

The secondary, led by Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson and newcomers Damarri Mathis and Chau Smith-Wade, will be tasked with containing Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. But with a pass rush that can collapse pockets and a scheme designed to confuse young receivers, the Panthers have the tools to frustrate Jacksonville’s aerial attack.

Canales’s offense thrives on the run, and the Panthers have a three-headed monster in Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle, and rookie Trevor Etienne. Etienne, the younger brother of Jaguars star Travis Etienne, adds a layer of intrigue—and motivation. He broke off a 28-yard run in preseason and looks ready to contribute immediately.

Jacksonville’s run defense, while improved, still has holes. Carolina’s offensive line, anchored by Taylor Moton and Robert Hunt, will look to establish dominance early. If the Panthers can control the clock and keep Lawrence off the field, they’ll dictate the tempo and wear down the Jaguars in the Florida heat.

The Panthers haven’t won a season opener since 2021. They were embarrassed last year in a 47-10 loss to the Saints. That kind of humiliation sticks. This team is hungry—not just to win, but to prove they belong.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville is coming off a 4-13 season and a coaching change. Liam Coen may be the right man for the job, but Week 1 is rarely kind to new regimes. The Jaguars are still figuring out their identity, while Carolina has spent the offseason refining theirs.

Las Vegas sportsbooks give the Panthers just a 40.8% chance to win. The moneyline sits at +130, and the spread favors Jacksonville by three points. But betting markets are often slow to adjust to late-season momentum and offseason development.

Public money is heavily on the Jaguars, but sharp bettors know that Week 1 is ripe for upsets. The Panthers have continuity, a clear offensive philosophy, and a defense capable of making big plays. That’s a recipe for a surprise win—and a rude awakening for Vegas.

September in Jacksonville is brutal. Forecasts predict 92 degrees with a 101-degree heat index and 89% humidity. That’s a sweat-fest. But Carolina’s run-first offense is built for grinding out drives and controlling possession. They won’t need to air it out in the heat—they’ll pound the rock and let their defense rest.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, may struggle with tempo and fatigue. If the Panthers can build an early lead and force the Jaguars into a pass-heavy game plan, the conditions could become a factor.

X-Factors to Watch

• Tommy Tremble: The tight end is back from injury and could be a key red zone target.

• Jimmy Horn Jr.: The rookie speedster may break a big play on special teams or a jet sweep.

• Damarri Mathis: Reunited with DC Ejiro Evero, Mathis could be a difference-maker in coverage.

This won’t be a blowout. It’ll be a gritty, physical contest decided in the trenches. But Carolina has the edge in coaching, motivation, and system continuity. Bryce Young will make just enough plays, the defense will bend but not break, and the Panthers will walk away with a win that flips the script on their season—and the betting world.

Las Vegas may not see it coming. But the Panthers do. And on September 7th, they’ll prove the doubters wrong.

My prediction, for this long anticipated look at the retooled Panthers offense, is a 27-20 win for the Carolina Panthers to get back into the opening week win column.